Bidu: how to hedge

Bidu is scheduled to report earnings in 2 days (Apr. 27th).  I usually don’t trade issues before earnings (too risky).  However, I placed some Bidu bullish trades today.

Today’s trade: Bidu spread: Long 135 call, short 140 call, expire in 4 days.  Spread cost: $4.15/pair.  Potential profit: $0.85/pair.

Here is the reasoning.

  1. Here is my positions of bidu before my trades today: I am long bidu shares and short bidu Sept 105 call.  There is still 7.6% profit left (time value/margin requirement) for 4.5 months.  This is very safe (bidu has to drop $45 or ~30% before my profit will be hurt) but the return is no longer sexy anymore (annualized return of 20%).  (This is why I say I can nearly guarantee 10% or more return under the current market conditions).
  2. The Chinese internet stocks, such as sina, sohu, have been reporting great earnings and the stocks have been soaring.  Besides, Bidu has been reporting great earnings in the past quarters and its chart looks picture perfect. The near term market condition is bullish (chartadvisor.com and schaeffersresearch.com)
  3. Even if bidu misses and the stock drops, I will lose money on the spread that I created today.  But the Sept 105 call will also drop in price.  My plan, if this scenario plays out, is to roll up the Sept 105 call (a vertical roll up which will create more time value, hence create an annual return of more than 20%).  So this spread acts as a hedge.

 

 

About admin

Richard Cheng, M.D., Ph.D., is an avid Wall Street investor with 20+ years of investing experience. He is specially adept at observing the world to find the patterns and then design strategies to win his battle. Most, if not all, happenings in the world, follow certain patterns. These patterns may be complex, multi-factorial, not so intuitive at the first glance, or even may appear chaotic. However, even chaos has its own patterns. If you pay attention and be patient, you'll find them and then you will gain an upper hand in your battle. Using this blog space, he documents his trades and his thoughts as they happen. He uses this blog as a a notebook to help him better refine his strategies. Hopefully this will help you as well. Good luck in your trading.
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