Market Condition: short term (1-2 months) volatile and bearish; long term (>2 months): bullish

ChartAdvisor.com advises investors to be cautious.  It believes there is a chance of near term bounce and the stocks are cheap in long term views.  But the markets will take some time to stabilize.

Schaeffersresearch.com: The 2nd part of this post is interesting.  It shows historically, the markets tend to be volatile and negative in 1-2 months following such a big crash.  But in 3-6 months term, the bounce is greater than average.

My take: Wall Street goes through this type of volatility several times a year, although the degree of volatility varies each time.  SP500 fell from 1217 on 4/21/10 to 1028 07/-06/10: a 15.5% drop in 76 days.  Just one example: SP500 fell from 1345 on 07/22/11 to 1199 on  08/05/11: a 10.8% drop.  We have been through this before and the markets recover.  Point: unless you face a margin and are forced to liquidate your positions, you should hold on tight and NOT to sell at this very low price levels.  Actually, I advise to add positions during such a panicky period.  The time to make real money is exactly the times like this one we are in the middle of.  Of course, I always use covered call (simultaneously) when I add new positions.  “This too shall pass”.

 

About admin

Richard Cheng, M.D., Ph.D., is an avid Wall Street investor with 20+ years of investing experience. He is specially adept at observing the world to find the patterns and then design strategies to win his battle. Most, if not all, happenings in the world, follow certain patterns. These patterns may be complex, multi-factorial, not so intuitive at the first glance, or even may appear chaotic. However, even chaos has its own patterns. If you pay attention and be patient, you'll find them and then you will gain an upper hand in your battle. Using this blog space, he documents his trades and his thoughts as they happen. He uses this blog as a a notebook to help him better refine his strategies. Hopefully this will help you as well. Good luck in your trading.
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2 Responses to Market Condition: short term (1-2 months) volatile and bearish; long term (>2 months): bullish

  1. Marlies says:

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  2. Kopfhoerer says:

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