Market Condition: range bound, cautiously bullish

Schaeffersresearch.com: Reasonably bullish as the indexes are trading at the bottom of the range and right above major supports.  “With equities pulling back to potential long-term support areas as negative sentiment continues to grow, now is a good time to add equity exposure to your portfolio for a potential rally back to the resistance areas discussed last week. But be careful if there is a break of support, as short-covering activity or a shift from other assets will not be as urgent, undermining the potential reward for the risk you are taking.”

ChartAdvisor.com: “The market is in a very dangerous position right now and traders should be looking to protect their capital rather than gaming a bottom.”  This site is generally more conservative and analyses fewer parameters than the Schaeffer’s.

VIX: 41.25

My take: It wasn’t a surprise that the market sold off last week, although the degree of the sell off is still a bit unsettling.  I think the probability of a bounce back from here is greater than going further below.  I’ll continue to hedge with short calls, although I will use OTM calls (which leave room for a rebound).  The key to investment success is that I look at the long term return.  If you need that money now, then stay out of the market.

About admin

Richard Cheng, M.D., Ph.D., is an avid Wall Street investor with 20+ years of investing experience. He is specially adept at observing the world to find the patterns and then design strategies to win his battle. Most, if not all, happenings in the world, follow certain patterns. These patterns may be complex, multi-factorial, not so intuitive at the first glance, or even may appear chaotic. However, even chaos has its own patterns. If you pay attention and be patient, you'll find them and then you will gain an upper hand in your battle. Using this blog space, he documents his trades and his thoughts as they happen. He uses this blog as a a notebook to help him better refine his strategies. Hopefully this will help you as well. Good luck in your trading.
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One Response to Market Condition: range bound, cautiously bullish

  1. Oren says:

    This is a little something I must do more research into, thanks for the post.

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